tv National Governors Association Hosts Discussion on Demographics CSPAN July 17, 2016 9:42pm-10:35pm EDT
best. $13 trillion debt. >> all about donald trump. i think his issues and his policies on foreign trade and how unfair it is to trade with china and the way we trade with them is unfair. i like to even that out. i also love his policies on immigration. let's build a wall, let mexicans come on over, but legally. >> voices on the road with c-span. the national governors association meeting deprecating population and states of how this changes, health-care, and job creation. this is just under one hour. >> the changing demographics,
take population mix, integration, changing of the economy is something that is impactful. sometimes surprising and sometimes stunning what is taking place. the knowledge of those changes, the demographic shifts taking place will help us all become more effective governors as we in fact engaged and governorship with our local leaders and civic leaders. this is an important discussion talking about the demographic of the states. for that effort, we will turn the time over to scott and he can conduct this for the section. i will be back in just a minute. >> i think most of you know governor brian sandoval was going to oversee the session and he asked me to step in. they had an unfortunate event in with an
emergency in nevada city had to return. i'm delighted on behalf of governor sandoval to step in. fortunately i was familiar with the session i'm able to talk a little bit about this particular session. it is called the next generation state. of changing communities. the reason we put the session in it because it is kind of under the news you can use. information you can use type of template because we have been talking about demographics and the aging population and all these things for years and the worry is that we have to deal with this, states have to do with this. when it comes down to it, we are the beginning of the issue. it is happening now. it is no longer an article the omaha world herald. you better be worried, the
population is aging. the time is now. as the national governors association to start the process of thinking about it and been able to assist the governors as they think about it. i'm really excited that we are doing this and i know governor sandoval, who won to be here because, as many as you know, nevada seen this change right now. they are there. they have not only the aging population, but also an exposure in the southern part of the ak-12 population and exceptionally diverse k-12 population. many of the students coming in where english is not their first language. nevada is living it. what we want to do is create and understand the issues in need of what is going on with regard to demographics. obviously there are a lot of issues that have come up.
with the skills gap and other things and demographics has a direct impact on all do things. on behalf of governor sandoval, i welcome you to the session. let me introduce our speakers today. we're delighted to have such expertise in the room. i want to start with tom glaspie. he is the former demographer of the state of arizona. if you don't have a demographer interstate, he should. should devastated comments, and estate demographer because they can be key indicators of how to go forward and the director of policy and marketing at the bank of america. and one thing i'm excited about having him here that he will talk about the downside of the engine population and the opportunities you have. we should not look at it as a doom and gloom and as a negative.
, futurelly lili lowery columbus. we are delighted to have really here. she is the former chief school officer of two states, that is rather unusual. maryland and lower. i will very briefly say a few words about some of the budget and fiscal issues under demographics that we should think about. about aention one thing personal extras that tells you how critical demographics are. in virginia's to government, we had an elaborate process that went on for months in which we determined the estimate over a 10 year time of the prison population and we did that to determine how much we wanted to appropriate for prisons and how much in terms of prisons to build. what was fascinating about the was after going through all this methodology, one of our demographer said, i don't know
why we spent hours and days and weeks of this. all we have to do is look at demographics and determine how many young men between the ages of 15-25 exist at any given time and we can extrapolate the prison population. sounds rather simple. and thomas roddick invest little simple. but it demonstrates how demographics was such a key factor in just one of those very budget driven types of decisions at the state level. i will turn it over first atomic he has some slides he will go over with us that you will find interesting about the aging of the population in the financial applications of the changing demographics and diversity we are starting to see explode the. thank you. normally demographic change comes at a glacial place. we're seeing rapid changes of the impact of demographic
changes that affect public service demands, economic growth and state budgets. the big one is aging. we are getting older and we are getting older as society, this is not a normal thing. this is the first time in the history of human society that we've seen something like this happen and it is happening on a global scale. many countries of the world are stressing this. certainly the united states. we're not the oldest, but we are stressing this. by 2020, that's only four years ago four years away. we will have more people over and k-12d we have kids education. for the first time ever. populationand older will continue to grow much more rapidly than the cap-12 age population. we have record numbers of people
who are retiring and receiving their first social security check. addition to aging, america is also growing more racially and ethnically diverse. by 2024, that is 20 years from now, we will no longer have a majority race. races and at the speakers will be minority in some respect. that we are changing rapidly as a society. this also has an age component. diverse are much more than are older population. elementn is a critical in our future economic growth. here we are seeing very large-scale differences in performance by race and ethnicity and also by poverty,
not onlyty dimensions are these trailers large differences, but even our hearts highest performing groups are still not performing as well as we would like to see them perform. we need to ratchet up our performance across all of our groups in society. this raises questions right now about our current performance about future economic growth. jobs in ourers of society because of technological change and other changes require something more than a high school diploma. they require an associate degree, the college degree or sometimes specialized training level ine high school and is increasing over time the educational requirements are expanding as a moving to the
future. our children may not actually be prepared to perform the jobs of the future as we saw. sufferevenue growth will if we do not meet the demands of jobs in the future. aging is already having an impact on state government budgets. fastest growing component of the budget. right now medicaid and k-12 education is beginning to squeeze other components of our budget. this is going to increase dramatically, particularly after 2025. and lest you think that it's a long ways off in the future, that is only 10 years. after 2025, many of the baby boom generation will begin to approach age 80 and we will see rapid rises and dementia and issueshronic health
related to aging. unless we are ready for that day, that is really good to squeeze our state government budgets. that leads us to some about the impact of demographic change on the state government financial situation. it is important to understand that this is not a short run issue. this is a longer an issue and the issue is a structural one said that quick fixes will not solve this issue. simple solutions will not solve it. we need to see long run structural changes. economic growth is likely to slow if we do not see those changes and efforts to increase revenues will be met with increasing resistance. spending pressures will continue to increase largely driven by issues of aging and health care
costs. dealing with our legacy cost, but alsoy pensions bonding and other legacy costs .ill be a major challenge without fundamental change, statesenator will shift many will shift from a focus on education and infrastructure to social services to health care and to cost an implication for future revenue growth beyond that. so that would if we focus on health care and pension costs to the inclusion of infrastructure and education, our future economic growth may be diminished as a result. thank you. what i liked about what you just said is that it demonstrates how dramatic the changes that we are seeing in the united states in terms of
the demographic changes. that to talk upon about the applications of the aging population but also the opportunities that statement governors can think about as those changes take place. >> put together a data set that shows the issues of aging population but as a private sector individual, we look at it as an opportunity set. the good strategy look at the same data that tom presented. i look at it from a consumer demand perspective. boomers,ink about consumer spending a boomers is 60%. tame spend about the of health care, it is 73%. the private sector individual, that is demand. how do i set up opportunity to get that demand?
we looked at this opportunity set and called it the silver economy. besides the economy. if you add up all these opportunities for the man, how much is it. 2020, thelobally by size of this economy will be $15 trillion. bethe u.s. alone, that will $7 trillion. for illustration purposes, to understand what that might mean, if you just take that segment, it would be the number three economy in the world. the opportunity. had we as states, had we as investors penetrate this opportunity. we think of three tracks. one track at your health care, the track is their financial services and a third track is through consumer goods. i can spend a lot of time with
charts and graphs. for the sake of colonization i will share with examples. let's take health care. we did a study recently and on health and retirement. in that study, we ask, what is this that boomers are concerned about in their later years. of seemingone fear condition was alzheimer's. it took us but the press. talk about opioids and cancer, alzheimer's. why is this a concern? for thatr one fear disease is a loss of sense of freedom. take where my car keys. was loss ofoncern dignity. periods the fear of being a burden on the family member.
turn 85,ays that we the chances of being in state cognitive client is 1-3. that's two out of three couples at the age 85 are going into decline and also hours. the private sector has woken up to this. other policymakers have broken up to this. the only disease that has gotten funding doubled from the nih is also hours. got from have a billion dollars to $8 billion. cancersill small to which are $6 billion. for us alzheimer's is whitespace. if you are a company and want to invest in an issue area with increased funding, or stay looking for facilities and what to start, focus on research area, also hours would be a good area. customer fear that i just explained.
the financial services base, we .ee a really transforming world for me talk to customers in climates, been with dr. just about money management, and what to talk about health, they want to talk about home. they want to talk about continuing to work passage to five. that very clearly expressed to us that what they invest, to what to focus on doing good for communities as well as getting a fair return people who worked on social impact bonds. we have worked with new york state to issue social impact bonds to reduce the incidence of prison recidivism. riskis governor shifting to investors driving social good
. at the nj staff, we had a discussion on how to make social impact bonds. services, one example and that of how things are changing. third one is consumer goods and technology. californiacompany in that has an app through which one click of a button, you can get services for mom and dad. if you think about technology changes, the demands of computer self, 50% of changes in home renovation is by boomers. these companies are using looking at the economy as an opportunity. the question becomes, if you add
up all these examples, he get to be 7 trillion. the question is, as investors, as datesplayed this, how to crack these companies double folk on the silver economy to grow gdp and grow jobs. i'm sure we will have some questions on this but we can pivot. >> that was great. that makes us think about some things that i had not thought about in terms of the aging population. often we see only the negative way and it is kind of nice to hear their broader view of what kind of services will be needed [indiscernible] .
organization of the 52 largest ceos in the central ohio region. ceosnificant number of the are in the health care field and financial services. has beent these data something they have been doing overtime. they have taken on every frontier on economic the bellman. how do we grow new businesses. on technology. how do we activate innovate? so we have the kind of app that i can get families access to elder care. all of those think freedom energies have emanated from the thought processes of the ceos. a long way, when we started talking about the aging of america and the kinds of numbers where this gap is going with more boomers been people in the pipeline to plan, innovate around us were, they realize that education have to be a part
of the portfolio. it really that what they do really well is run their businesses and grow job opportunities. education especially. public education was on their wheelhouse. they stood up and hide me to come there to advise them on these kinds of discussions so that we can do two things. we can find the things are working well. 0-24 years old. think about the pipeline will have the. it is happening. what is working really well that we can accelerate or expand and where are the gaps where we can xe creative energy to sulfur
-- solve for x. because of the browning of america, no majority, you're dealing with not just children who were born here, or doing with a lot of new americans. in ohio we have to biggest somali or it second-largest smaller population and also nepalese. all of that is immigrating to the ecosystem and what we are trying to do is look at what happened to them before they even show up to can regarding. what is happening to 0-5. worked with nations wide children hospital to celebrate one. make a church of england to one years old and has them if and mortality weekly tackle. then we are looking at what kind of high-quality care is available to our children before they get to kindergarten because working stores that children took to can regarding not knowing how to hold a book. not knowing numbers come out the
back, their names, how to spell them. if we can get them started out right, that means the achievement gap does not walk into the door with them. in were looking at using people like the ones have been described to you as about to leave the workforce to be mentors. i will give you one last example. governor kasich has something mentorthe community mentoring program. faith-based leaders, community organizers, community organizations, business leaders who go into communities based on the plan of action and actually take these boomers who are and work for these children as mentors around personal discipline, personal response ability and the social skills they need to be successful.
governor kasich but $10 million into that initiative each year. then he something called a straight a fund around innovation and creativity where he engages the business community and local jurisdictions to partner with schools, colleges and universities to look at innovation and creativity around stem. aret of those opportunities not something that would normally happen to the school on its own so the business community, the philanthropic community and community organizers and organizations who understand the ecosystem far better than somebody sitting at a distance is really benefiting from up to one my dollars a year for plans for the community. i will end by saying we are so pleased in public education in
the examples i've given you are examples that you did you could probably look to similar examples in your state. but without the business community, our governmental leaders and the schools working together whether they be public, or parochial schools, if we are not working altogether, to ensure that we are developing the pipeline that is needed to back fill this workforce and being thoughtful about what we are trying to do and engage, billy was a great opportunity. we see this as an exciting opportunity to focus our work in ways that will be beneficial for the common good. thank you. what a great example of an innovation to deal with some of these challenges that we are seeing. in a moment we will open it up to the governor's. i assume you have some interesting questions. i wouldn't say a few things about the budget and financial
impacts. you know better than anyone that unlike the federal government, states have to balance their budgets. in effect, from a financial standpoint, is a zero-sum game. spending andthe revenue at a state level. as tom pointed out. and i can certainly empathize, what we are seeing is a situation where the expectation is that revelation -- revenue will grow slightly below average you have a limited expectation because of the tax system in a changing economy for a week or average growth rate of revenue. on the spending side, you have a lack of flexibility given that they requirements for health care, medicaid, k-12, and of course, i always say a good way
to think about, there are certain things you can't do a mealy. you can open the doors of the prison and let people walk out. there are those expenses. you have a difficult fiscal situation and what i think is really interesting is that demographics have such a critical role. we know at the health care level, there is no question that the aging population has a huge impact but it is so much more than that and again, you point nevada,ate like utah, where the have fairly significant growing k-12 populations. in a lot of changes demographically that have a financial impact in one of them is this issue of the pension and we expect and forecast that states will have to put more on annual basis, general fund money
into the pension system to ensure that they are fully funded your the flipside of that is not to put that money and with greater risk. there will be more pressure over time as the population ages and beatrice said say, you will need a certain amount of money for pensions to put the pressure on additional funds to put in the pension. pensions is an issue we all talk about but over the next 10-20 years, will just be a huge dramatic issue for states simply because of the additional funds necessary. people, theinance term crowd out, a very worrisome situation in which as you have to put more money into certain things, like medicaid, whether that is good or bad, a crowd that funding available for higher education or other things.
you have some difficult, prickly political and financial dilemmas going for. really based on the demographic changes. thought, andd for so many different ways. i was like to take a few minutes to open this up to the governors. i hope you have a question. have an incredibly esteemed panel on the issues. we see in the paper, i joke paper, thee sunday aging of the population. now we are seeing them, these have locations for you and your states. governor herbert, i turn it over to you. rather governors of question. >> i will start what you are
thinking, and the expense side, you touched on, the changing demographics is impactful in many ways. you mentioned utah, we have a fast-growing birthrate, higher birth rate than the national average. our impact on schools, that demographic is continuing to expand where other states may be leveling off a reducing. for my budget, i'm impacted because of this higher birthrate. i start we will follow the national trend and slow down. i've taken the pledge, not having orchids. -- more kids. as the aging population has more , immigrationliance that is coming to our country, theundocumented ministry
concern we have as government officials, are we adding into the burden of the taxpayer, the taxpayers by increasing the burden by having more and more people on government assistance because of the changing demographics. is that happening? other countries out there are having a hard time putting the economy because so much of the gdp goes into supporting those on government assistance. again, to me about the economics of immigration, aging population, are we going to be able to afford this additional burden as we go forward? i'm very optimistic about the future and even though my presentation, i think we will find some solutions to critical issues.
think one of the things we need to discard is the notion that want to turn 65, you're in are ready toheap take a vacation and not do anything. the worst thing we can have is people sitting around doing nothing because they will be less healthy, it will cost more, and probably rumble more as well. keeping people active, funny way to keep people in the workforce in ways that they would like to of puttinge way alternatives for training. , once a beyond that person leaves the workforce, opportunities for volunteerism do things like that that can for some of the state expenses while at the same time keeping
people active in making them feel like they're making a contribution to society and in doing so will be healthier, longer lives and less expensive. i think there are tremendous opportunities. not an all one-sided thing. when you to think alternatively about how we move forward in the future. >> as we look at the boomers, we were surprised that 85% of those who were serving said that they want or need to work past 55. those who say they want to what to do it on their terms. flextime etc.. the question then becomes, demand that they want to be in the workplace. our companies like mine set up to take on workers and policies
of state and cities, are the age friendly? if we do that, that we could tap into the energy that thomas talking about. -- thomas talking about. -- tom is talking about. >> the business canadian is all in. -- community is all in. they're willing to invest with matching funds as long as it can make sense. they can maintain their productivity. >> let me follow up. what you have illustrated and what we all know intuitively that the demographics are changing. the questions, are the policies changing to align with the them of graphics. bush whopresident tried to say that we need to get social security back on some sound projections.
everybody thought, that is probably a good idea, but no one wanted to do it. it became a very divisive issue that we have just kicked that down the road. agree, people past 65, they don't want to be put out to the pastor. they want to find some other way to continue on. many people are working past 65. when you look at the last hundred years in america, the average life span of a eric and is 47. now it is 78. for women it is 82. clearly the demographics are changing and yet i don't see a lot of change in politics or policy. are we just waiting for the crisis. way to go over the cliff. waiting to go over the cliff. are we going to get something that makes us change policy to line up the demographics.
? >> i totally agree with that. once that i would like to add, a child born today, the chances of that child turning 100 is one in three. we will have a society living up to 100 as we go forward. policies have to change. for about 35 years, i worked in state government and was raising these issues say that, in the long run, this is going to happen. we need to prepare for it. the response oftentimes was that, that is often the long run. we have more immediate short run issues to deal with. is thatat is happened the long run has now become a short run issue. that is where my hope lies is that we can't kick the can down the road anymore. we had start making some decisions and i think the idea of public-private partnerships is a brilliant one.
many corporations are also very concerned about these issues. that's is that the real possibility for making some dramatic changes in the way we deal with an aging population. >> i want to add also. i think it is important, i have a feeling of all thought about this. frankly, you have a wonderful people and encourage people to save for retirement. the statistics are terrifying. i know i'm not doing enough and i'm trying to get ready for retirement and increase my 401(k). i'm educated on finance issues. i would strongly recommend, are there ways within your state to be asking the citizens, what are you doing to try to think about and save for retirement? i think we will have a terrible
crisis in about 10-15 years with people getting to that point and unable to live on what they have saved for retirement even with a supplement of social security on top of that. >> i sometimes feel the demographers, looking to the future, my partner running down the street trying to tell the people, there is a problem coming. we are being ignored. were not taken answers like. we has elected officials need to have questions. other questions? dennis and john. >> thank you. that i'm in aess relatively good position in south dakota. the government, the governors before me in the legislatures in the past have been fairly careful about some of the things. notwithstanding that, some of
the things that were shown on the chart, some predicted as coming, we started to see in south dakota. we are seeing dedicated becoming -- many kid -- medicaid becoming an ever-increasing portion of the budget. state thate in a really has avoided some of the very long-term liability issues of pensions as a blaster, was fully funded. this year, with stock market over the last 12 months, not so great. the investment projection. we will be 93% funded relatively good among the states but certainly a harbinger of what could occur down the road. and authority occurring in
states like illinois where the underfunding is very severe. one thing that we did and i know some state are starting to do is very must within our reach. that is change the pension plan for new hires. adoptedome states have pension plans that are different for new hires, keeping the commitment to workers big party made on the workforce and granted, that is a long solution. it will take some time for the workers on the old plan to gradually move off into retirement age or death and the new employees under more modest plans that are more realistic in terms of what the state can d underand can be finance a danced structure. that is in a state, i line it
was like us that has low debt -- iowa is like us that has low debt. i look at many of the nationwide averages and comparing all the other states that have significant pension liabilities and i can see what we have just started to express on a mini minimal level is public on to occur on a very significant level in the not very distant future. we've had to do some things to forestall that. you have to have some courage to do that. we've raised taxes this last session to increase funding for education. medicaid was crowding out armor ability to do so with existing revenue. we did raise taxes. same thing for infrastructure. we cannot raise taxes for infrastructure, our gas tax,
vehicle registration tax, we were right behind iowa in that regard. they raise their tax and we shortly thereafter raise our tax on gas as well. to provide better funding for our roads. accept the citizens will those things if they feel that the dollars are not simply to pay for past sins, but to pay a aspect of af -- better future. move don't let states more more quickly, like a fundraiser who wants to come and raise money for the building that is already built and they want to raise money to help pay down the debt. the hard sell. first the college advancement officer who says, let's build is a science building, we don't have it yet and your knowledge
will make that future possible. also much a question or comment. an observation. some of the prospect of features that you shown us through those graphs and slides are even occurring already today. >> thank you. governor edwards. >> the question i have i think it for mr. gillespie. it will be hard for me to from the question, he was helped in terms of the burden of the aging population. that is progress. but there's a cost associated with progress. people are living longer. there was a time, you had a heart attack when you were 15, he died. he got time >> gets when you are 52, he died. now you're living longer. up, youume, making this
consume about 90% of the health care over your life in the last 10 years of your life. there is a tremendous cost associated with it. in one respect, it is progress. if we want progress, we have to find a way to pay for it. i know that it is hard because it does start to squeeze out other things. there is a revenue component. if you allow medicaid, he will have less revenue in the years with which to pay for the cost associated with that progress. this is all externally hard and if you focus in on one part of it, to the solution of another, you'll be completely out of bounds as well. i would ask you to comment on that. >> thank you. sense, i totally agree. in a very large sense, we are bedeviled by our blessings.
we have been richly blessed as society. we're living longer and healthier. we have more opportunities and we live almost a term life and we are complaining. we are getting older. eventually will not be as active. i think the main thing is we need to be aware of this and plan for this. that is why, even though many of us people listen to the number and think of it as depressing, i don't think of it as depressed. i live with these numbers all the country i don't think of it as depressing. i think it is something that is. we simply need to prepare for it. and go forward. recognize that we are living longer. living healthier and what a fantastic time to be alive. i don't think it is a negative thing. we need to be aware of this as its implications for budgets and things like that.
and be able to deal with that. one of the things we were working on when i left the state superintendents, or the state commissioner financial literacy, i believe that most states have been infused financial literacy through can come and 12 grade. at that point about perforce hostility and discipline waiting for the situations where pensions may or may not be there. to anyg about college, to go away and pay huge amounts to go to college if there is a college in your hometown. that is more affordable? i would also advise states to look at those curricula to make sure we are starting the children early on in helping to get their mind set to that personal responsibility for living longer and what that means financially for families. >>
the reality of your discussion can lead us to nothing but latest of the impossibility that it is for all intents and possibilities and impossibility. possibility we are living in an economy where people are not capable of saying that and we are spending time in the united states pretending that we are suddenly going to take people living in of poverty with benefits we are providing and the somehow reform those in a way that we will save money that is anything
but income base. it is an impossibility. take the show on the road and spend time in washington dc because the state can take up the different so it is an important discussion and a reality we need to face as a nation. it is fun to talk about it but it is reality. me that if weo and asked thedata exporter or a net mia a net importer, because that gdpan implication on because on one side is a problem and on the revenue side, a net
importer can drive that. so i would ask, what does the demographics look like. and my set up to attract those companies? of it.uld be my summary >> we have run out of time. let us give our panel a round of applause. thank you very much. we will now take a 10-minute break and have our last session on cyber security. these stay in place. take a bathroom break if you need, but hurry back.
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